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Tag: Kim Bellard

DNA is Better at Math than You Are

By KIM BELLARD

I was tempted to write about the work being done at Wharton that suggests that AI may already be better at being entrepreneurial than most of us, and of course I’m always interested to see how nanoparticles are starting to change health care (e.g., breast cancer or cancer more generally), but when I saw what researchers at China’s Shanghai Jiao Tong University have done with DNA-based computers, well, I couldn’t pass that up. 

If PCs helped change the image of computers from the big mainframes, and mobile phones further redefined what a computer is, then DNA computers may cause us to one day – in the lifetime of some of you — look back at our chip-based devices as primitive as we now view ENIAC.

It’s been almost 30 years since Leonard Adleman first suggested the idea of DNA computing, and there’s been a lot of excitement in the field since, but, really, not the kind of progress that would make a general purpose DNA computer seem feasible. That may have changed.

At the risk of introducing way too many acronyms, the Chinese researchers claim they have developed a general purpose DNA integrated circuit (DIC), using “multilayer DNA-based programmable gate arrays (DPGAs).” The DPGAs are the building blocks of the DIC and can be mixed and matched to create the desired circuits. They claim that each DPGA “can be programmed with wiring instructions to implement over 100 billion distinct circuits.”

They keep track of what is going on using fluorescence markers, which probably makes watching a computation fun to watch. 

One experiment, involving 3 DPGAs and 500 DNA strands, made a circuit that could solve quadratic equations, and another could do square roots. Oh, and, by the way, another DPGA circuit could identify RNA molecules that are related to renal cancer. They believe their DPGAs offers the potential for “intelligent diagnostics of different kinds of diseases.”

DNA tracking DNA.

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Poor Kids. Pitiful Us

By KIM BELLARD

Well, congratulations, America.  The child poverty rate more than doubled from 2021 to 2022, jumping from 5.2% to 12.4%, according to new figures from the Census Bureau.  Once again, we prove we sure have a funny way of showing that we love our kids.

The poverty rate is actually the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), which takes into account government programs aimed at low income families but which are not counted in the official poverty rate. The official poverty rate stayed the same, at 11.5% while the overall SPM increased 4.6% (to 12.4%), the first time the SPM has increased since 2010.  It’s bad enough that over 10% of our population lives in poverty, but that so many children live in poverty, and that their rate doubled from 2021 to 2022 — well, how does one think about that?

The increase was expected. In fact, the outlier number was the “low” 2021 rate.  Poverty dropped due to COVID relief programs; in particular, the child tax credit (CTC).  It had the remarkable (and intended) impact of lowering child poverty, but was allowed to expire at the end of 2021, which accounts for the large increase. We’re basically back to where we were pre-pandemic.

President Biden was quick to call out Congressional Republicans (although he might have chided Senator Joe Manchin just as well):

Today’s Census report shows the dire consequences of congressional Republicans’ refusal to extend the enhanced Child Tax Credit, even as they advance costly corporate tax cuts…The rise reported today in child poverty is no accident—it is the result of a deliberate policy choice congressional Republicans made to block help for families with children while advancing massive tax cuts for the wealthiest and largest corporations.

Many experts agree: child poverty, and poverty more generally, is a choice, a policy choice.

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The Times They Are A-Changing….Fast

By KIM BELLARD

If you have been following my Twitter – oops, I mean “X” – feed lately, you may have noticed that I’ve been emphasizing The Coming Wave, the new book from Mustafa Suleyman (with Michael Bhaskar). If you have not yet read it, or at least ordered it, I urge you to do so, because, frankly, our lives are not going to be the same, at all.  And we’re woefully unprepared.

One thing I especially appreciated is that, although he made his reputation in artificial intelligence, Mr. Suleyman doesn’t only focus on AI. He also discusses synthetic biology, quantum computing, robotics, and new energy technologies as ones that stand to radically change our lives.  What they have in common is that they have hugely asymmetric impacts, they display hyper-evolution, they are often omni-use, and they increasingly demonstrate autonomy. 

In other words, these technologies can do things we didn’t know they could do, have impacts we didn’t expect (and may not want), and may decide what to do on their own.  

To build an AI, for the near future one needs a significant amount of computing power, using specialized chips and a large amount of data, but with synthetic biology, the technology is getting to the point where someone can set up a lab in their garage and experiment away.  AI can spread rapidly, but it needs a connected device; engineered organisms can get anywhere there is air or water.

“A pandemic virus synthesized anywhere will spread everywhere,” MIT”s Kevin Esvelt told Axios.

I’ve been fascinated with synthetic biology for some time now, and yet I still think we’re not paying enough attention. “For me, the most exciting thing about synthetic biology is finding or seeing unique ways that living organisms can solve a problem,” David Riglar, Sir Henry Dale research fellow at Imperial College London, told The Scientist. “This offers us opportunities to do things that would otherwise be impossible with non-living alternatives.”

Jim Collins, Termeer professor of medical engineering and science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), added: “By approaching biology as an engineering discipline, we are now beginning to create programmable medicines and diagnostic tools with the ability to sense and dynamically respond to information in our bodies.”

For example, researchers just reported on a smart pill — the size of a blueberry! — that can be used to automatically detect key biological molecules in the gut that suggest problems, and wirelessly transmit the information in real time. 

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Smells like AI Spirit

By KIM BELLARD

There are so many exciting developments in artificial intelligence (AI) these days that one almost becomes numb to them. Then along comes something that makes me think, hmm, I didn’t see that coming.

For example, AI can now smell.

Strictly speaking, that’s not quite true, at least not in the way humans and other creatures smell.  There’s no olfactory organ, like our nose or a snake’s tongue. What AI has been trained to do is to look at a molecular structure and predict what it would smell like.

If you’re wondering (as I certainly did when I heard AI could smell), AI has also started to crack taste as well, with food and beverage companies already using AI to help develop new flavors, among other things. AI can even reportedly “taste wine” with 95% accuracy. It seems human senses really aren’t as human-only as we’d thought.

The new research comes from the Monell Chemical Senses Center and Osmo, a Google spin-off. It’s a logical pairing since Monell’s mission is “to improve health and well-being by advancing the scientific understanding of taste, smell, and related senses,” and Osmo seeks to give “computers a sense of smell.” More importantly, Osmo’s goal in doing that is: “Digitizing smell to give everyone a goal at a better life.”

Osmo CEO Alex Wiltschko, PhD says: “Computers have been able to digitize vision and hearing, but not smell – our deepest and oldest sense.” It’s easy to understand how vision and hearing can be translated into electrical and, ultimately, digital signals; we’ve been doing that for some time. Smell (and taste) seem somehow different; they seem chemical, not electrical, much less digital. But the Osmo team believes: “In this new era, computers will generate smells like we generate images and sounds today.”

I’m not sure I can yet imagine what that would be like.

The research team used an industry dataset of 5,000 known odorants, and matched molecular structures to perceived scents, creating what Osmo calls the Principle Odor Map (POM). This model was then used to train the AI. Once trained, the AI outperformed humans in identifying new odors. 

The model depends on the correlation between the molecules and the smells perceived by the study’s panelists, who were trained to recognize 55 odors. “Our confidence in this model can only be as good as our confidence in the data we used to test it,” said co-first author Emily Mayhew, PhD. Senior co-author Joel Mainland, PhD. admitted: “The tricky thing about talking about how the model is doing is we have no objective truth.” 

The study resulted in a different way to think about smell. The Montell Center says:

The team surmises that the model map may be organized based on metabolism, which would be a fundamental shift in how scientists think about odors. In other words, odors that are close to each other on the map, or perceptually similar, are also more likely to be metabolically related. Sensory scientists currently organize molecules the way a chemist would, for example, asking does it have an ester or an aromatic ring?

“Our brains don’t organize odors in this way,” said Dr. Mainland. “Instead, this map suggests that our brains may organize odors according to the nutrients from which they derive.”

“This paper is a milestone in predicting scent from chemical structure of odorants,” Michael Schmuker, a professor of neural computation at the University of Hertfordshire who was not involved in the study, told IEEE Spectrum.  It might, he says, lead to possibilities like sharing smells over the Internet. 

Think about that. 

“We hope this map will be useful to researchers in chemistry, olfactory neuroscience, and psychophysics as a new tool for investigating the nature of olfactory sensation,” said Dr. Mainland. He further noted: “The most surprising result, however, is that the model succeeded at olfactory tasks it was not trained to do. The eye-opener was that we never trained it to learn odor strength, but it could nonetheless make accurate predictions.”

Next up on the team’s agenda is to see if the AI can learn to recognize mixtures of odors, which exponentially increases the number of resulting smells. Osmo also wants to see if AI can predict smells from chemical sensor readings, rather than from molecular structures that have already been digitized. And, “can we digitize a scent in one place and time, and then faithfully replicate it in another?”

That’s a very ambitious agenda.

Dr. Wiltschko claims: “Our model performs over 3x better than the standard scent ingredient discovery process used by major fragrance houses, and is fully automated.” One can imagine how this would be useful to those houses. Osmo wants to work with the fragrance industry to create safer products: “If we can make the fragrances we use every day safer and more potent (so we use less of them), we’ll help the health of everyone, and also the environment.”

When I first read about the study, I immediately thought of how dogs can detect cancers by smell, and how exciting it might be if AI could improve on that. Frankly, I’m not much interesting in designing better fragrances; if we’re going to spend money on training AI to recognize molecules, I’d rather it be spent on designing new drugs than new fragrances.

Fortunately, Osmo has much the same idea. Dr. Wiltschko writes:

If we can build on our insights to develop systems capable of replicating what our nose, or what a dog’s nose can do (smell diseases!), we can spot disease early, prevent food waste, capture powerful memories, and more. If computers could do these kinds of things, people would live longer lives – full stop. Digitizing scent could catalyze the transformation of scent from something people see as ephemeral to enduring.   

Now, that’s the kind of innovation that I’m hoping for.

Skeptics will say, well, AI isn’t really smelling anything, it’s just acting as though it does. E.g., there’s no perception, just prediction. One would make the same argument about AI taste, or vision, or hearing, not to mention thinking itself. But at some point, as the saying goes, if it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck.  At some point in the not-so-distant future, AI is going to have senses similar to and perhaps much better than our own.

As Dr. Wilkschko hopes: “If computers could do these kinds of things, people would live longer lives – full stop.” 

Kim is a former emarketing exec at a major Blues plan, editor of the late & lamented Tincture.io, and now regular THCB contributor.

Let’s Start Over

BY KIM BELLARD

When I first read the reports about some Silicon Valley billionaires wanting to start a new city, I figured, oh, it’s just a bunch of rich white guys wanting to take their toys and go to a new, better home. After all, they’ve seen what’s been happening to downtown San Francisco (or Portland, or Chicago – pick your preferred city).  

Cities these days may be an what one expert calls an “urban doom loop” – struggling to recover after having been hollowed out by the pandemic. These so-called elites probably figured it’s easier to build something new rather than to try to fix what already exists.  And, you know, they may be right.  

Now that I think about it, the same may be true of our healthcare system.

The group, fronted by a mysterious entity called Flannery Associates, has been busy buying up land outside San Francisco for the past five years, spending a reported $1b for some 57,000 acres in Solano County. The proximity of its purchases to Travis Air Force Base had already raised concerns. Believed to be behind the group are a number of well known tech names, including LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman; former Sequoia Capital partner Michael Moritz; venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Chris Dixon; Stripe co-founders Patrick Collison and John Collison; Laurene Powell Jobs, Steve Jobs widow.

It doesn’t help that earlier this year Flannery sued dozens of local landowners for colluding to drive up prices, or that they’ve been so secretive. John Garamendi, one of the area’s Congressmen, said: “Flannery Associates has developed a very bad reputation in Solano County through their total secrecy and mistreatment of generational family farmers.” 

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The Next Pandemic May Be an AI one

By KIM BELLARD

Since the early days of the pandemic, conspiracy theorists have charged that COVID was a manufactured bioweapon, either deliberately leaked or the result of an inadvertent lab leak. There’s been no evidence to support these speculations, but, alas, that is not to say that such bioweapons aren’t truly an existential threat.  And artificial intelligence (AI) may make the threat even worse.

Last week the Department of Defense issued its first ever Biodefense Posture Review.  It “recognizes that expanding biological threats, enabled by advances in life sciences and biotechnology, are among the many growing threats to national security that the U.S. military must address.  It goes on to note: “it is a vital interest of the United States to manage the risk of biological incidents, whether naturally occurring, accidental, or deliberate.”  

“We face an unprecedented number of complex biological threats,” said Deborah Rosenblum, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs. “This review outlines significant reforms and lays the foundation for a resilient total force that deters the use of bioweapons, rapidly responds to natural outbreaks, and minimizes the global risk of laboratory accidents.”

And you were worried we had to depend on the CDC and the NIH, especially now that Dr. Fauci is gone.  Never fear: the DoD is on the case.  

A key recommendation is establishment of – big surprise – a new coordinating body, the Biodefense Council. “The Biodefense Posture Review and the Biodefense Council will further enable the Department to deter biological weapons threats and, if needed, to operate in contaminated environments,” said John Plumb, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy. He adds, “As biological threats become more common and more consequential, the BPR’s reforms will advance our efforts not only to support the Joint Force, but also to strengthen collaboration with allies and partners.”

Which is scarier: that DoD is planning to operate in “contaminated environments,” or that it expects these threats will become “more common and more consequential.” Welcome to the 21st century.  

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What Robotaxis Mean for Healthcare

BY KIM BELLARD

You may have seen that last week the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) gave approval for two companies to operate self-driving taxicabs (“robotaxis”) in San Francisco, available 24/7 and able to charge fares.  Think Uber or Lyft but without drivers. 

It has seemed inevitable for several years now, yet we’re not really ready.  It reminds me, of course, of how the future is coming fast for healthcare too, especially around artificial intelligence, and we’re not really ready for that either.

The two companies, Cruise (owned by GM) and Waymo (owned by Alphabet) have been testing the service for some time, under certain restrictions, and this approval loosens (but does not completely remove) the restrictions. The approval was not without controversy; indeed, the San Francisco police and fire departments,  among others, opposed it. “They are failing to regulate a dangerous, nascent industry,” said Justin Kloczko, a tech and privacy advocate for consumer protection non-profit Consumer Watchdog.  

The companies brag about their record of no fatalities, but the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency has collected almost 600 “incidents” involving autonomous vehicles, even with what they believe is very incomplete reporting.  “While we do not yet have the data to judge AVs against the standard human drivers are setting,” CPUC Commissioner John Reynolds admitted, “I do believe in the potential of this technology to increase safety on the roadway.”

I’m willing to stipulate that autonomous vehicle technology is not quite there yet, especially when mostly surrounded by human-driven vehicles, but I also have great confidence that we’ll get there quickly, and that it will radically change not just our driving but also our desire for owning vehicles. 

One of the most thoughtful discussions I’ve on the topic is from David Zipper in The Atlantic. He posits: 

A century ago, the U.S. began rearranging its cities to accommodate the most futuristic vehicles of the era, privately owned automobiles—making decisions that have undermined urban life ever since. Robotaxis could prove equally transformative, which makes proceeding with caution all the more necessary.

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I Want a Lazy Girl Job Too

BY KIM BELLARD

I came across a phrase the other day that is so evocative, so delicious, that I had to write about it: “lazy girl job,” or, as you might know it. @#lazygirljob.

Now, before anyone gets too offended, it’s not about labeling girls as lazy; it’s not really even about lazy or even only girls.  It’s about wanting jobs with the proverbial work-life balance: jobs that pay decently, don’t require crazy hours, and give employees flexibility to manage the other parts of their lives.  Author Eliza Van Cort told Bryan Robinson, writing in Forbes: “The phrasing ‘lazy girl job’ is less than ideal—prioritizing your mental health and work-life integration is NOT lazy.”

The concept is attributed to Gabrielle Judge, who coined it on TikTok back in May (which is why I didn’t hear about it until recently).  According to her, it means not living paycheck to paycheck or having to work in unsafe conditions. She believes job flexibility doesn’t mean coming in at 10 am instead of 9 am because you have a dentist appointment; it means you have more control over your hours and when you get your work done. If Sheryl Sandberg was all about “leaning in,” Ms. Judge is about leaning out.  

Ms. Judge explained to NBC News:

Decentering your 9-to-5 from your identity is so important because if you don’t, then you’re kind of putting your eggs all in one basket that you can’t necessarily control. So it’s like, how can we stay neutral to what’s going on in our jobs, still show up and do them, but maybe it’s not 100% of who we are 24/7?

“I’m only accepting the soft life, period,” she says.

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How to Talk to a Doc

BY KIM BELLARD

For better and for worse, our healthcare system is built around physicians. For the most part, they’re the ones we rely on for diagnoses, for prescribing medications, and for delivering care.  And, often, simply for being a comfort.  

Unfortunately, in 2023, they’re still “only” human, and they’re not perfect. Despite best intentions, they sometimes miss things, make mistakes, or order ineffective or outdated care. The order of magnitude for these mistakes is not clear; one recent study estimated 800,000 Americans suffering permanent disability or death annually.  Whatever the real number, we’d all agree it is too high.   

Many, myself included, have high hopes that appropriate use of artificial intelligence (AI) might be able to help with this problem.  Two new studies offer some considerations for what it might take.

The first study, from a team of researchers led by Damon Centola, a professor at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania, looked at the impact of “structured information–sharing networks among clinicians.”  In other words, getting feedback from colleagues (which, of course, was once the premise behind group practices). 

Long story short, they work, reducing diagnostic errors and improving treatment recommendations.  

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